The Booms and Busts Podcast with Jonathan Davis.
This episode is available here: https://audioboom.com/posts/7554498-podcast-97-120420-featuring-well-it-features-what-you-imagine-it-features as well as on iTunes obviously.
Now I like Jonathan. He is not a conspiracy theorist as such but he can be extreme. What I like is that he deals out the rage at just the right time with just the right tone. Unlike Alex Jones who is easily dismissed because he is almost always enraged and he is almost always engaged in extreme nonsense and unreason, Jonathan is only sometimes angry - and when he is it is appropriate and hilarious. When he steps into science and into basic figures he does sometimes get things wrong and I've picked him up on this before. He needs to be more careful checking simple facts. But that aside, the overall sense of his podcast is clear and his knowledge of markets and the economy is "incisive". He is absolutely worth listening to on the economy and aspects of politics. Whatever the case I have noted below not only some major points but - this one I encourage you to listen to at the 6 mins 30 secs bit for like 4 minutes and then again at 38 minutes in for another 4 minutes or so just to get a taste of his sometimes-style. I don't think everyone should be like this or even many people - but it's fun to have some people like this making a podcast. So here is what Jonathan spoke about:
-Pandemics, Recessions, millions unemployed, a volcano in Indonesia and Jonathan is going bald.
- Dec 31st Taiwan authorities sent an email to WHO warning about atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan. WHO failed to act. WHO is headed (it’s director general) is not a doctor but an Ethiopian politician who is a communist. (This is “Tedros Adhanom”).
- He questions the scale of the pandemic. This is not the first pandemic in history but it is the first one to require a massive global bailout and lockdown when less than 0.5% of the population has been infected.
-Less than 50,000 people have died of C-19 so far worldwide. Jonathan then gets some numbers wrong. He says 120,000 people died of seasonal flu - but he must mean just the UK. According to WHO it’s a much larger number - it’s double that according to this: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
And Malaria at 30,000? No way: It’s over 400,000 https://www.who.int/gho/malaria/epidemic/deaths/en/
And I already knew car accidents were over a million https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ (not merely 300,000)
So he’s actually understating it.
You can return to my series of notes from podcasts on Corona here
This episode is available here: https://audioboom.com/posts/7554498-podcast-97-120420-featuring-well-it-features-what-you-imagine-it-features as well as on iTunes obviously.
Now I like Jonathan. He is not a conspiracy theorist as such but he can be extreme. What I like is that he deals out the rage at just the right time with just the right tone. Unlike Alex Jones who is easily dismissed because he is almost always enraged and he is almost always engaged in extreme nonsense and unreason, Jonathan is only sometimes angry - and when he is it is appropriate and hilarious. When he steps into science and into basic figures he does sometimes get things wrong and I've picked him up on this before. He needs to be more careful checking simple facts. But that aside, the overall sense of his podcast is clear and his knowledge of markets and the economy is "incisive". He is absolutely worth listening to on the economy and aspects of politics. Whatever the case I have noted below not only some major points but - this one I encourage you to listen to at the 6 mins 30 secs bit for like 4 minutes and then again at 38 minutes in for another 4 minutes or so just to get a taste of his sometimes-style. I don't think everyone should be like this or even many people - but it's fun to have some people like this making a podcast. So here is what Jonathan spoke about:
-Pandemics, Recessions, millions unemployed, a volcano in Indonesia and Jonathan is going bald.
- Dec 31st Taiwan authorities sent an email to WHO warning about atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan. WHO failed to act. WHO is headed (it’s director general) is not a doctor but an Ethiopian politician who is a communist. (This is “Tedros Adhanom”).
- He questions the scale of the pandemic. This is not the first pandemic in history but it is the first one to require a massive global bailout and lockdown when less than 0.5% of the population has been infected.
-Less than 50,000 people have died of C-19 so far worldwide. Jonathan then gets some numbers wrong. He says 120,000 people died of seasonal flu - but he must mean just the UK. According to WHO it’s a much larger number - it’s double that according to this: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
And Malaria at 30,000? No way: It’s over 400,000 https://www.who.int/gho/malaria/epidemic/deaths/en/
And I already knew car accidents were over a million https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ (not merely 300,000)
So he’s actually understating it.
- This is what the 0.01% were looking for as an opportunity.
- There is a difference between dying with C-19 or of C-19. Overwhelming majority are over the age of 60. Is this a surprise that older people are dying?
- At 6:30 he starts to rev up a bit :) That’s the fun part. Goes on for 3 minutes then he cools down again.
- Many reports where the data is being questioned. A US state senator has apparently been given a document about how to overcount C-19 cases by filling out death certificates attributing deaths to C-19 even when they are not.
- Worries about the coppers dragging people off buses and out of parks even when they’re 10 meters apart.
- Worries about currencies being removed and replaced by digital currencies from which “they” can empty your account.
- Every listener thinks he’s crazy even while nodding your head. You’re attracted to what he’s saying even while disbelieving it.
- 99.7% of Italian deaths had unrelated and underlying issues. C-19 has not killed tens of thousands of people. But it gets signed off as “COVID” each time. All the models are inaccurate but continue to be changed.
- The takeover by authoritarians has happened without a single shot fired. It’s a dystopian future today.
- You’ve been “brainwashed” into thinking they’re helping. 5% of the bailout money has gone to the economy (I think he’s speaking of the UK).
- Gordan Brown called on people to create a “temporary” global government to deal with the crisis.
- C-19 was the catalyst for this takeover of the economy.
- The economy will recover somewhat and will rise quickly for a time.
- Fewer cars and houses will be purchased while they rebuild their finances so they will make fewer big purchases.
- Interest rates went from about 5% to nothing. The one thing that could be done to bail out the economy last time cannot be done this time.
- We are presently in super deflation unless you’re in deliveries. So Jeff Bezos loves this.
- Big lenders will only lend at 65% or less on a house.
- After the lockdown is over we will go back to inflation and it will rise for years and years.
- We are moving into an era of inflation. Oil has collapsed and is down to $20 a barrel. But in 2-3 years Jonathon expects oil to be up to $100 a barrel. The present Saudi Arabia vs Russia nonsense is meaningless.
- How does he know inflation is coming? The sheer amount of money thrown at government bonds mean the return should not merely be zero but negative. Instead it’s positive.
- The markets smell inflation.
- Factories will be moved out of China back to Turkey, South Korea, etc. This will cost more and thus increases inflation.
- Inflation will be here for the next generation.
- Did anyone say “sell” 3 weeks ago?
- From 1963 to 1973 inflation went from 3% to 25%. Interest rates from 1.5% to just under 20%. In only 10 years. Will house prices really go back up with higher unemployment?
- 38 minutes in gets hilariously angry again (this is 4 minutes worth). He’s rather like a parody of a Victorian era school teacher.
- Many people will be working from home from now on and so commercial properties will be sold off because no one needs big offices.
- Is your super/pension in property? Better change it. Are you mad?!
- Commercial property will go into recession for 20 years.
- Residential property costs will still be lower than today in 20 years.
- Between 1974 and 1976 wages went up 50% (in England). House prices were flat. This won’t happen this time.
- Today we work all the hours god sends just to put a roof over your head.
- Sellers will reduce prices and interest rates will rise.
- “Buy to let” - you thought you were smart. You will lose money.
- Stock prices have stopped falling. The rally has been “mightily strong”. He is clearly saying put money into stocks - to buy more and sell none. And get out of property.
- He thinks we’ll go back to the all time highs of February.
- When we get there we’ll hear about the job numbers,company bankruptcies, pensions and default and C-19 numbers. But you won’t hear the good news.
- Lots of people sold stocks. His clients did not.
- The hedge fund managers bought lots when the market was down.
- 46 minutes: yells at people for not signing up to his report.
- Directors of companies have been buying shares in their own companies.
- SNP had its worst quarter ever.
- He is saying that the market is driven by emotion, not reason. If you stick the course with stocks.
- 10 years of an incredible stockmarket rise to come.
- March 2020 was just a shock. It does not change the fundamentals at all. It’s a bull market.
- Superannuation should be put into precious metals like gold.
- Miners went up 200% after 2008 - this looks to be the same.
- Stockmarket is coming back faster than ever. The SNP 500 bottomed 3 weeks ago and since then has gone up 25% - which is 35% of the decline. This is unprecedented. This is a bull market, not a bear market rally.
- People in the media are pessmists with the stockmarket. They keep claiming it has further to fall. They ignore the good news.
- UK institute for health and metrics has advised down the number of deaths from C-19 from 66,000 to 37,000. How much less would it have been had we been testing and restricting air travel from the beginning of Feb?
You can return to my series of notes from podcasts on Corona here